COVID-19 Cost Scenario Modeling Update

posted by AHIP

on June 8, 2020

This analysis is an update of the March 30, 2020 report. Since that report was published, new data on both COVID costs, utilization, and deferred care has become available, and has been incorporated into this update. While this new information has improved the analysis, there remain large levels of uncertainty on the ultimate impact of COVID on the United States and particularly the health care industry.

The primary changes from the prior report include the following:

  • The overall assumed rates of hospitalization for infected individuals has been reduced to align with recent studies. The rate has also been adjusted for age and morbidity differences by line of business.
  • The estimated unit cost of a hospital admission has been increased based on survey data provided by AHIP members.
  • An estimated impact of deferred care on overall healthcare spend was included and combined with the COVID treatment costs to arrive at a combined impact on cost of care by line of business.

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