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CBO Confirms Coverage Is at Risk for Millions of Americans

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Published Jun 4, 2025 • by AHIP

Washington, D.C. – Following the release of the Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimate on the House-passed reconciliation bill, AHIP released the following statement:

“The latest estimates released today by the Congressional Budget Office confirm the current draft of the reconciliation bill would meaningfully erode health insurance coverage in the U.S. Over the next decade, coverage in Medicaid and the individual market would decline by approximately 10.9 million people.

“Separately, the potential expiration of the existing health care tax credits would result in 4.2 million people losing coverage. This combination will destabilize the individual insurance market, resulting in diminished competition, fewer choices and higher premiums — all at a time when millions of people no longer covered by Medicaid will need affordable sources of stable coverage.

“Loss of coverage on this scale will put access to care out of reach for millions of families and threaten the viability of many of the providers who care for them, particularly in rural communities nationwide.

“The current reconciliation bill does include provisions to broaden the availability of HSA plans and make them more flexible. That’s the kind of approach Americans will welcome — building on and improving the coverage people count on today. However, some of the provisions in the reconciliation bill would disrupt rather than build on coverage.

“For example, auto-reenrollment for people who are satisfied with their existing plans is a staple of health insurance. Prohibiting this routine, convenient and proven approach to continuity of coverage in the individual market will inevitably result in surprise loss of coverage.

“As the budget reconciliation process continues, Congress should support low-income people and working families by keeping coverage stable and access to care affordable in Medicaid and the individual market.”