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New Research: Millions of Americans Will Pay More for Marketplace Coverage if ARPA Tax Credits Expire

Press Release

Nearly 3 million Americans would also lose health coverage and become uninsured if enhanced premium subsidies lapse.

Published Apr 26, 2022 • by AHIP

WASHINGTON, D.C. – (April 26, 2022) – Every American deserves access to affordable coverage and high-quality care. But according to new research from Avalere Health conducted on behalf of AHIP, Americans buying their own health coverage will face large increases in the consumer share of premium costs in 2023 if the temporary subsidies provided through the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) are not extended beyond 2022. Moreover, experts say nearly 3 million Americans would become uninsured if ARPA subsidies expire at the end of 2022 and over 10 million Americans would lose all or part of their premium subsidies but remain insured.[1]

Voters are speaking out: A new Morning Consult poll conducted on behalf of Better Care America found that the vast majority of voters think that protecting these Americans from premium increases should be an important priority for federal policymakers.

“Affordable coverage is key to improving access to high-quality health care,” said Matt Eyles, AHIP President and CEO. “And through enhanced premium assistance provided through ARPA, affordable coverage is a reality for millions more Americans and their families. American voters clearly see this as an important priority. and why it’s critical to help keep more Americans covered by making ARPA tax credits permanent.”

How Hardworking Americans and Families Would Feel the Impact

Signed into law in 2021, ARPA temporarily enhanced and expanded eligibility for Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies for marketplace coverage by providing:

  • Low-income individuals with incomes up to 150% of the federal poverty level (FPL) who are not eligible for Medicaid access to $0 premiums.
  • Individuals with incomes between 150% and 400% FPL enhanced generosity of premium subsidies.
  • Individuals with incomes above 400% FPL access to expanded eligibility for premium subsidies.

According to today’s new and updated data from Avalere, the average American will face annual premiums in 2023 that are hundreds of dollars higher if these tax credit enhancements expire at the end of 2022:

  • A 27-year-old earning $19,191 per year (149% FPL) could face an annual increase in out-of-pocket premiums of almost $800 per year.
  • A 46-year-old person earning $41,860 per year (325% FPL) could face an increase of $1,300.
  • A 55-year-old couple earning $70,551 per year (405% FPL) could face an increase of more than $9,000.

In addition to national data, Avalere Health also estimated the expected increases in costs for Americans in example states, cities, and counties across the nation. Avalere examined how the elimination of these ARPA supports would impact people in Phoenix, AZ; Arapahoe County, CO; Broward Country, FL; Atlanta, GA; New Hampshire; New Jersey; Las Vegas, NV; Cleveland, OH; Philadelphia, PA; and Charleston, WV.

Voters Speak Out: Congress Should Make ARPA Tax Credits Permanent

Also released today are the results of a poll conducted by Morning Consult on behalf of Better Care America. The survey, which asked voters for their perspectives on ARPA subsidies, found that the vast majority of respondents (83%) think protecting individuals receiving health care coverage under the ACA from facing an increase in their premiums should be an important priority for federal policymakers. Other survey highlights include:

  • A strong majority of voters across the political spectrum think protecting Americans with ACA coverage from increased premiums should be an important priority for federal policymakers: 96% Democrat voters, 82% independent voters, 70% Republican voters.
  • Two-thirds (66%) of voters think lawmakers should make federal subsidies for ACA health coverage permanent.
  • Considering the recent reports on rising inflation rates, 72% of voters are concerned about allowing federal subsidies for ACA health coverage to expire.

Additionally, support for making ACA subsidies permanent is high among independent voters. The survey found that nearly 70% of independent voters (67%) think the federal subsidies should be made permanent.

“Americans need Congress to take action now,” concluded Eyles. “Making ARPA tax credits permanent will make health care more affordable and accessible for hardworking families. We can’t let this opportunity pass us by to make a real difference in the lives of millions of Americans by making coverage and care more affordable, especially for those who buy coverage on their own.”

View the Avalere Health study on renewing ARPA subsidies for 2023.

View the Morning Consult survey on voters’ support for ARPA subsidies.

About AHIP

AHIP is the national association whose members provide health care coverage, services, and solutions to hundreds of millions of Americans every day. We are committed to market-based solutions and public-private partnerships that make health care better and coverage more affordable and accessible for everyone. Visit to learn how working together, we are Guiding Greater Health.

[1] Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Projected Coverage and Subsidy Impacts if the American Rescue Plan’s Marketplace Provisions Sunset in 2023. March 23, 2022. Available here.