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New Analysis: Impact of 2024 Medicare Advantage Advance Rate Notice


On February 1, 2023 the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released the contract year (CY) 2024 Advance Notice with an accompanying Fact Sheet.

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Published on Mar 6, 2023

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Medicare Advantage

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AHIP has retained Wakely Consulting Group LLC. (Wakely) to provide a financial impact summary report of the information presented in the Notice.

Key highlights of our analysis are:

  • The CY2024 fee-for-service (FFS) growth rate is lower than projections from the 2023 Final Announcement. A portion of the downward restatement is driven by a technical change. CMS has not commented on the additional drivers.
  • The proposed Part C risk adjustment model is expected to decrease plan risk adjusted payment by 3.7% overall. The impacts vary significantly by model segment and geographic region, and for individual plans.
  • The proposed FFS normalization factor excludes PY2021 risk scores in the calculation of the underlying trend. The exclusion of PY2021 increases the FFS normalization factor which decreases PY2024 risk scores.